Tim Ferris’ Coal Mine is Not Your Coal Mine

Could we have a little perspective, please?

After reading Tim Ferris’ blog, “Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction?” I knew I’d hear about it. When I read Ferris’ assertion that “… yes, prescriptive nonfiction is the canary in the coal mine, and the coal mine is enormous”—in bold, no less—I figured it wouldn’t be long before the authors in my writing community started messaging me. Sure enough, I received my first, “Have you seen this?!!!!!!” email within 24 hours of reading it.

I understand why my authors sent me the Ferris piece. The dude presents a convincing argument, complete with his own numbers and Q1 ’26 industry stats. If you have an eagle eye, you might also spot Seth Godin’s comment on the post. It reads: “We agree, Tim. Well said. (and I’m seeing the same data).”

Oh, lordy. Seth Godin is seeing the same data with his own catalog? For some of my authors, that’s like a stamp of approval on Ferris’ assertions—or a final nail in the coffin, take your pick.

My authors’ freak out is totally fair. Publishing is hard on the very best days. In my 21 years in the industry, I have seen most authors look for reasons to quit, pull themselves out of it, and then quit later anyway. The standard grab bag of frustrations and insecurities takes most aspiring authors down. So, if it seems as though your fate is out of your control, that the great AI monster of inevitability will ultimately kill your publishing dreams, why bother writing a book at all?

Because Tim Ferris’ coal mine is not your coal mine.

I’ve always appreciated his meaty, well-researched blogs and counterarguments. But man, I think he missed some important factors in his assessment.

I have two points I want you to consider before you hold up that blog post as evidence as to why you should quit.

1. Everything is relative. Even with the dramatic drop, Ferris (and Godin, and other big-name authors) are still selling books at a rate most authors aspire to achieve. I’ll give you some numbers below.

2. As much as it pains my Minnesota-nice heart to say this, the one data point Ferris left out of his post was perhaps the most important: the way potential new readers view his books. So, the Ferris factor.

Everything is Relative

To illustrate my first point, let’s get out of Ferris’ bubble. Y’all. Go right now and look up The 4-Hour Workweek on Amazon. Just for grins, I did this on June 14^th, two days after he published the blog post. His hardcover BSR was 9,165 that day, which means for that window of time, he was selling at a rate of approximately 400 books a month. Now that’s not an accurate assessment, by any means. It’s a gauge, a best guess. And it’s based on a BSR that will change in a few hours. So, consider this a fictional exercise based on a bit of reality designed to help you stop breathing in and out of a paper bag.

Let’s assume that 400 books/month figure is correct. For clarity, that would be his sales for hardcovers; it doesn’t include the paperback, audiobook, or ebook formats. And let’s assume Ferris is getting at least 15% off list, because certainly he’s blown past his publisher’s sales thresholds. That means for hardcovers, he’s likely bringing in $1,600/month or $19,200/year in royalties. That’s for one format of the US, English version of one of his books.

Inside Ferris’ bubble, that number may not be great. He’s used to killing it. He’s used to bigger numbers and the decline impacts his life, I’m sure.

Outside the Ferris bubble, where most authors live, those numbers are fan-freaking-tastic.

See? Perspective.

I don’t want you or any emerging or aspiring authors to throw in the towel because some big-name authors’ numbers are down.

And despite Godin’s co-sign on Ferris’ numbers, I checked on a couple of big-name authors who wrote classic books for writers—The War of Art by Steven Pressfield and The Artist’s Way by Julia Cameron—and they are still holding steady at 2,000+ and 6,000+ paperback books/month, respectively. I know this because in my workshop, I frequently share detailed information about the success of those books, what I call “enduring bestsellers,” and I remember their BSRs. (Again, not an accurate measure of sales or anywhere near the big picture, but a way to track what readers are into now.)

Now, you might push back and say, “AJ, I don’t have a career/celebrity/body of work/platform on par with these big-name authors. How can I even hope to get anywhere near his numbers?”

You can. I see my authors hitting these and better numbers on the regular. And you have at least one advantage over big name authors: you are better positioned to give prescriptive nonfiction readers more personal experiences. More and more, readers want access to authors. They want to learn directly from them, to be in their world. You aren’t mega famous, so it’s easier for you to give readers face time.

The Ferris Factor

Before I get into my second point, a few notes for any Ferris fans reading this right now. Know that I read The 4-Hour Workweek and The 4-Hour Body and learned a lot. Those books did not end up in a garage sale; they are still on my shelf. I have listened to his podcast a few times and I like his style, his enthusiasm and curiosity. And as I said earlier, I appreciate his detailed blogs. What I’m about to say is not an assessment on his value.

Simply put, some big books need updating. Publishing is cyclical—not just for trends, but for authors. Tastes change. Culture shifts. New voices emerge. When your backlist stops rocking like an ATM machine, it’s time to look at where you fit in the new landscape.

The expanded and updated version of The 4-Hour Workweek came out in 2009. The way we work and build businesses has changed so much since it was published. And the workforce has changed, with younger people focused on different goals and values. Maybe it’s time for an update. In fact, scroll through the comments on his death knell post and you’ll see several people asking Ferris for just that.

It’s Not Just AI

So what is happening with nonfiction? I agree with my go-to for all publishing industry predictions, Jane Friedman, who attributes nonfiction’s decline in sales to the myriad ways people consume that type of content now. (Follow her, read her stuff, subscribe to her newsletter.) To get further perspective on overall shifts in publishing, check out her blog post, “How Publishing Has Changed Since 2015.”)

What will happen with prescriptive nonfiction? I don’t know. I expect sales will continue to decline for the next year or so as we try to figure out what AI is doing—to industries, to art, to all of us. So that’s a big question mark.

Now more than ever, voice and point of view matter. Reader experience matters. They want to feel connected and we are living in a world that has largely forgotten how to do that. So readers are looking for authors who get them. And when they find them, they’ll buy their books and read them. Readers don’t want an AI summary of connection—they want connection.

Don’t panic and don’t quit. Focus on your reader and you’ll be just fine.

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